The Theory of the Second Demographic Transition:Main Approaches and Interpretations

• Zulfiya Valitova

  Author

• Айгуль Есимова

  Author

The article analyzes the theory of the second demographic transition (SDT) developed by D. Van de Kaa and R. Legstag in the 1980s. The theory is based on the idea that the emergence of new socio-demographic trends (a steady decline in fertility, postponement of marriage and childbirth, an increase in cohabitation and divorce, and a rise in the proportion of children born outside marriage) in Western and Northern European societies in the second half of the 20th century was linked to cultural and value changes. However, questions about the teleological nature and universality of this concept remain controversial in the scientific literature. At the same time, contemporary researchers highlight new manifestations of the Second Demographic Transition, such as the spread of the LAT (Living Apart Together) practice, the deepening of gender differences, and regional variations in demographic trajectories. The problem is that the founders of the SDT theory focused primarily on ideological shifts, while opponents of this model point to the influence of institutional, economic, gender, and other factors.

The first part of the article examines the main ideas of the original concept.

The second part of the article analyzes interpretations and critical assessments of the SDT theory in contemporary sociodemographic literature. The author's position is that the theory of the second demographic transition is a significant theoretical framework for describing and explaining demographic changes, and its heuristic potential can be enhanced by incorporating different perspectives and recognizing the multiplicity of possible trajectories of demographic development.

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